Data like today's Q4 GDP numbers and unemployment claims are important, but recognize they are backward looking. They tell us what has already happened. They are helpful to let us know where we've been, but they don't say much about where we are let alone where we're headed. I tell clients the decisions they're making today re. buying or selling are going to become tomorrow's news. Thus, it's important to try to get a pulse as to what's happening right now.
It's almost the end of January and there are data reports and anecdotal reports that suggest the frozen fall real estate market is starting to thaw, at least in pockets. Look at almost any news source or national real estate website and you'll see articles starting to pop up saying that at least some buyers are coming back into the market as interest rate volatility seems to have quieted down along with rates have come down off the peaks for last fall.
This week I've spoken with several agents in our McLean office who are telling me at price points under $1MM, the market still seems sluggish; not so many buyers buying. At the $1.5-$2.0MM level, however, multiple offers are back as buyers strive to pick-up good properties at not unreasonable prices. These buyers (and agents) are a bit surprised they're having to fight for homes again like they did earlier last year. This pick-up in activity is also consistent with the normal ramp up in sales leading into the spring market so it's not entirely clear how much tradition is driving the pick-up vs. mortgage rates.
How fast this seeming thaw spreads to other local markets and price points is what I'm watching. This week I have several listing appointments lined up at different areas within the DMV and some of buyers who took a pause in Q4 last year are texting and e-mailing me that they're speaking with their loan officers to get updated pre-approval letters in anticipation of buying something in the spring.
All the data is interesting is not helpful, but ultimately the right time to buy or sell is when it makes sense for you.